Unlike a lot of noise on social media, it is impossible to win every bet. Sports betting email address details are hugely affected by luck, and that’s why it is very important to have a mathematical method of your betting at ufabet and always look to bet on a larger number than the real odds of a casino game.
If you bet on Liverpool to win at eves (2.00), but by the kick-off time, the odds are at 4/5 (1.80), you are finding value. Repeat that scenario a large number of times, and statistics say you can make a profit in your betting.
Value bet ≠ Sure win.
Simply because you’ve placed that value bet on Liverpool doesn’t mean you will win, though. There’s still a 44.4% chance the bet will lose.
Take the old coin flip example. Even though it is a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails, if you flip the coin ten times, does it always land on heads five times? No.
Flip the coin 100 times. Does it always land on heads 50 times? No. Flip the coin 1,000 times. Does it always land on heads 500 times? No. You obtain the theory!
Now, let’s get familiar with the term; ‘law of vast quantities. ‘
Regulations of vast quantities, in probability and statistics, states that as an example size grows, its mean gets nearer to the type of the whole population.
In simple terms, this implies the more times you flip the coin, the closer you will get to a great 50/50 split.
Vast quantities in sports betting.
So, so how exactly does this all connect with sports betting? Well, it’s the same concept while the coin flip, but imagine you are placing value bets.
I could get very technical here and explain a couple of graphs and distributions to see exactly how placing value bets will turn out in the long term. Still, I could keep it as simple that you can be utilizing the Liverpool example above.
If you bet on Liverpool at evens (2.00) – implied 50% chance of winning – and they win, you double your money. But, the real chances are 4/5 (1.80), which means they are a 55.6% chance of winning.
Repeat this technique repeatedly, and you are essentially betting on a scenario where you can double your money, and there is a 55.6% chance of winning!
It’s the same as saying to your mate, “If this coin lands on heads, you’ve to give me $10. But when it lands on tails, I’ll offer you £8.”
Quick tips on how to reduce variance
Bet on lower odds ranges. The higher the odds you go, the more likely you are to be on long losing streaks and the more bets you must place before your variance has evened out.
Set a maximum bet size. Never bet a lot more than 2% of your overall bankroll on one game. As I stated earlier, just because you set a benefit bet, it doesn’t mean it’s a positive thing!
Take a long-haul method of your betting.